要有心理准备
Everyday Life in 2010
Ian Pearson, Aug 26 1998
Our everyday lives change dramatically for a variety of reasons - when we get married, have children, move to a new area, or change job, to name just a few major causes. Politics and fashion change things in different ways. Usually, technology changes our lives much more gradually but just as effectively. There is often debate about technological impact in the 21st century - will information technology, materials science or biotechnology have the biggest effects? The answer is they will all converge, just as computing and telecomms are converging today, with a combined effect. The resultant impact over the next few decades will be as if we had been visited by extraterrestrials who had generously given us all their futuristic technology. We'll see more technology change than we have since Adam, more social change than when Adam met Eve. One thing hasn't changed - people still have the same physical and social needs as they had thousands of years ago.
Telecomms progress
You've heard the hype - when it's raining, you'll meet your friends or shop via the network instead of going into town, watch digital TV with a thousand channels, visit the doctor using videophone, work from home - much of this is true but it's yesterday's news. Let's look at some less hyped projections instead.
By 2010, some of today's industries will be dead, mostly those with 'agent' in the title, replaced by computer programmes running for free. Many tasks in every job will be automated in much the same way. Computers will become intelligent personal assistants, greatly boosting our productivity. Most things that we thought need human creativity can even be automated. Computers already write good music for instance. What will be left are those areas of work that need the human touch. We will quickly move through the information economy into the care economy, exploring what it is we want from each other when we can automate most of the physical and mental bits of our work. What it is to be human.
Most of us will change jobs frequently, working for virtual companies with a core of critical staff and the rest of us on short-term contracts. We will mostly telework so that we don't have to move each time we change job, but not necessarily from home. Most homes aren't big enough and we have social needs at work, so many of us will 'go to work' in local telework centres, equipped with all the technology and facilities we need, doubling in the evenings as community centres for education and entertainment. We will actually work next to our neighbours, strengthening local community while reducing commuter stress.
Some companies may be truly global, with workers on every continent, picked specifically for the task in hand. But we will still have many small and local companies - there are as many factors pushing this way as there are towards multinationals. Virtual company technologies will make it just as easy for contractors to group together into virtual co-operatives. The agents and smart databases that employers need to find key workers could just as easily be used by workers themselves to find prospective partners to fill a market niche. The balance between employee and employer will probably shift towards the employee.
Everyday Life in 2010
Ian Pearson, Aug 26 1998
Our everyday lives change dramatically for a variety of reasons - when we get married, have children, move to a new area, or change job, to name just a few major causes. Politics and fashion change things in different ways. Usually, technology changes our lives much more gradually but just as effectively. There is often debate about technological impact in the 21st century - will information technology, materials science or biotechnology have the biggest effects? The answer is they will all converge, just as computing and telecomms are converging today, with a combined effect. The resultant impact over the next few decades will be as if we had been visited by extraterrestrials who had generously given us all their futuristic technology. We'll see more technology change than we have since Adam, more social change than when Adam met Eve. One thing hasn't changed - people still have the same physical and social needs as they had thousands of years ago.
Telecomms progress
You've heard the hype - when it's raining, you'll meet your friends or shop via the network instead of going into town, watch digital TV with a thousand channels, visit the doctor using videophone, work from home - much of this is true but it's yesterday's news. Let's look at some less hyped projections instead.
By 2010, some of today's industries will be dead, mostly those with 'agent' in the title, replaced by computer programmes running for free. Many tasks in every job will be automated in much the same way. Computers will become intelligent personal assistants, greatly boosting our productivity. Most things that we thought need human creativity can even be automated. Computers already write good music for instance. What will be left are those areas of work that need the human touch. We will quickly move through the information economy into the care economy, exploring what it is we want from each other when we can automate most of the physical and mental bits of our work. What it is to be human.
Most of us will change jobs frequently, working for virtual companies with a core of critical staff and the rest of us on short-term contracts. We will mostly telework so that we don't have to move each time we change job, but not necessarily from home. Most homes aren't big enough and we have social needs at work, so many of us will 'go to work' in local telework centres, equipped with all the technology and facilities we need, doubling in the evenings as community centres for education and entertainment. We will actually work next to our neighbours, strengthening local community while reducing commuter stress.
Some companies may be truly global, with workers on every continent, picked specifically for the task in hand. But we will still have many small and local companies - there are as many factors pushing this way as there are towards multinationals. Virtual company technologies will make it just as easy for contractors to group together into virtual co-operatives. The agents and smart databases that employers need to find key workers could just as easily be used by workers themselves to find prospective partners to fill a market niche. The balance between employee and employer will probably shift towards the employee.
