TPPN10 PGTW 010920
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (W OF PALAWAN)
B. 01/0900Z
C. 9.98N
D. 114.35E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LEMBKE

重点看99W
ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZJUN2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010221JUN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 115.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 115.7E, APPROXIMATELY 210
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LLCC. A 010200Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED OVER PALAWAN ISLAND AND
NOW HAS BROKEN AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF IMPROVING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). WARM SSTS (29-30C) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT 99W
WILL ASSUME A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND DEVELOP WITHIN 24
HOURS, HOWEVER, THE UKMO AND JGSM ARE NOT CURRENTLY DEVELOPING THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW
010230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 132.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 129.4E, APPROXIMATELY 225
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010119Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
FACILITATING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. SSTS REMAIN WARM (28-29C) EAST
OF THE PHILIPPINES AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS DISAGREE ON TRACK, WITH MOST TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES IN THE LATER
TAUS, WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE
IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

你需要机翻系列
ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GANADMIN /联合台风WRNCEN珍珠港H//
SujJ/西部热带地区重要热带天气咨询
南太平洋/ 010600 Z-020600 ZJun2018//
REF/A/MSG/联合台风WRNCEN珍珠港H/010221Jun2018//
AMPN/REF A是热带气旋形成警报。
RMKS/
1。北太平洋西部地区（180至马来半岛）：
热带气旋概述：没有。
热带扰动概述：
（1）以前的对流区域（投资9W）
接近89N 1157e，现在位于接近99N 1157E，大约210。
菲律宾公主港西南偏西。有生气的
多光谱卫星图像描述耀斑深对流
包装成一个合并的LLCC。0102Z MHS 89GHz微波
图中描绘了该系统在巴拉望岛上的跟踪。
现在已经打破和混乱的对流。该系统目前
位于提高高差和低垂直的区域
风切变（10-15千克）。南海的温SST（29～30C）
将继续支持进一步发展。全球模型预测
将大致呈西北走向，在24以内发展。
然而，UKMO和JGSM目前还没有开发。
系统。最大持续地面风估计为15至20。
结。最低海平面压力估计接近1004 MB。
重大热带气旋的发展潜力
在接下来的24小时内仍然很高。参见REFA（WTPN21PGTW）
010230）进一步的细节。
（2）以前所处的对流面积（投资90W）
在接近89N 132.1e附近，现在位于82N 1294E附近，大约225。
菲律宾达沃东北偏东。动画多光谱
卫星图像和010119Z MHS 89GHz微波图像描述
宽对流，对流移向南方。这个
干扰目前位于一个低到中度的区域（10—
20 kts）垂直风切变，北有一个Tutt单元
促进高空出流。SSTS保持温暖（228至9C）以东
菲律宾将支持进一步发展。全球的
模型在轨道上不一致，大多数系统以北为单位。
后几天再转向菲律宾
TAUS，而ECMWF偏向一条笔直的西北航道。那里
投资90W将巩固并达成良好协议
在接下来的几天内加强。最大持续表面
风速估计为15到20节。最低海平面气压为
估计接近1004 MB。A的发展潜力
未来24小时内显著的热带气旋仍很低。
（3）没有其他可疑区域。
2。南太平洋地区（美国南部西海岸至东135）：
热带气旋概述：没有。
热带扰动概述：没有。
神经网络神经网络

GFS认为960pha左右为巅峰

风切开始增强，凉凉。

。

ta

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